This week, nickel prices showed a "V-shaped" rebound but remained in an overall downtrend. In the spot market, the average price of SMM1# refined nickel fell from 124,150 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 122,325 yuan/mt on May 30, a decline of 1.4%. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained in the range of 2,200-2,600 yuan/mt this week. In the futures market, influenced by rumors of an increase in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) hit a weekly low of 118,630 yuan/mt, while LME nickel prices dipped to $15,000/mt before immediately rebounding to pre-decline levels. Ultimately, SHFE nickel closed at 121,100 yuan/mt this week, down 1.57%, and LME nickel closed at $15,325/mt, also down 1.57%.
On the macro front, global attention this week was focused on the progress of US-EU trade negotiations and the policy direction of the US Fed. The US and the EU reached a short-term easing on tariff issues. However, the latest Fed meeting minutes signaled caution, with officials generally concerned that tariff policies could drive up inflation persistence, further cooling expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, the US announced that the revised Q1 actual GDP was -0.2%, an improvement from the previous -0.3%, but still indicating an economic contraction. The revised annualized QoQ core PCE price index was 3.4%, below the expected 3.5% and the previous 3.5%, showing a slight easing of inflationary pressures.
In terms of inventory, the inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was approximately 5,000 mt this week, down 700 mt WoW.
Domestic social inventory was approximately 41,600 mt, down about 836 mt WoW, alleviating high inventory pressure to some extent.
In the medium and long term, the global overcapacity of nickel remains unresolved, with the nickel market under triple pressures of "high supply, weak demand, and tight funding." In the short term, the bottom of the oscillation range is seen at 115,000 yuan/mt, with a ceiling pressure at 123,000 yuan/mt.
